Uncertainty analysis tool for HEC-1 and HEC-RAS

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" rowspan="2" width=185 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="David Ford Consulting Engineers"><U><B><IMG SRC="0d058960.png" border=0 width="88" height="150" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B></U></A></div> <bR> <div>    <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Verdana" > </FONT></div> <div> <B> <TABLE BORDER="0" CELLPADDING="4" CELLSPACING="1" WIDTH="156" BORDERCOLORLIGHT="#FFFFFF" BORDERCOLORDARK="#FFFFFF" FRAME="VOID" RULES="NONE" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" > <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 27 WIDTH="146"><div> David Ford Consulting Engineers, Inc.</div> </tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 27 ><NOBR><div> 2015 J Street, Suite 200</div> <div> Sacramento, CA 95811</div> </NOBR></tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 27 WIDTH="146"><div> tel: 916.447.8779</div> <div> fax: 916.447.8780</div> </tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 27 WIDTH="146"><div> <A HREF="mailto:support@ford-consulting.com" TARGET="_top" TITLE="mailto:support@ford-consulting.com"><U>support@ford-consulting.com</U></A></div> </tD> </tR> </TABLE></B></div> <div>    </div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="David Ford Consulting Engineers"><U>Home</U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="id461.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="About us"><U>About us</U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="news.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="News"><U>News</U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="hydrologic_engineering.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Hydrologic engineering"><U>Hydrologic engineering</U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="water_resource_planning.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Water resource planning"><U>Water resource planning</U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="flood_economic_and_risk_analyses.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Flood economic and risk analyses"><U>Flood economic/risk analyses</U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="flood_warning.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Flood warning"><U>Flood warning</U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="decision_support_system_development.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Decision support system development"><U>Decision support systems</U></A></div> <bR> </td> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=40 BGCOLOR="#3366CC" TEXT="#080000" bgproperties="fixed" background="14400980ezthpx.png"> <div> <B>Uncertainty analysis tool for HEC-1 and HEC-RAS </B></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" height=440 colspan=2 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000" bgproperties="fixed" background="06c00962egerdp.png"> <div> <TABLE BORDER="0" CELLPADDING="2" CELLSPACING="1" WIDTH="547" BORDERCOLORLIGHT="#C0C0C0" BORDERCOLORDARK="#808080" FRAME="BOX" RULES="ALL" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" > <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP COLSPAN=3 BGCOLOR=#CC0000 HEIGHT= 16 WIDTH="537"><div> <B>Situation</B></div> </tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP COLSPAN=3 HEIGHT= 286 WIDTH="537"><div> For design of water control measures and for delineation of floodplains for land use regulation, a design flow rate is required. Commonly, this is a flow rate of selected probability of exceedence. Historically, when a historical flow record is not available for flood frequency analysis, the required design flow rate is estimated with a mathematical model of watershed runoff (such as HEC-1). The flow rates computed from the model are best estimates. </div> <div> The design flow rates serve directly or indirectly as information required for certain planning and design studies. However, these best estimate flow rates and the data derived from them, such as water surface elevation, include a degree of uncertainty. Historically, engineers have accounted for this uncertainty with some factor of safety, such as an arbitrarily selected addition to the best estimate flow or an arbitrarily selected freeboard distance added to the computed water surface elevation. But, these arbitrarily selected values fail to model the impacts of and the range of uncertainties. </div> <bR> <bR> </tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP COLSPAN=3 BGCOLOR=#339933 HEIGHT= 16 WIDTH="537"><div> <B>Action</B></div> </tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP COLSPAN=3 HEIGHT= 663 ><NOBR><div> We completed 4 major tasks: </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700c800000000.png" HEIGHT="13" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Determined the suitable Monte Carlo simulation methods for HEC-1 and HEC-RAS </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700c800000000.png" HEIGHT="13" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Undertook initial development of the software </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700c800000000.png" HEIGHT="13" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Created a test plan and improved the software based on testing results</div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700c800000000.png" HEIGHT="13" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Produced a user's guide for the software program</div> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="219b0040.jpg" border=0 width="432" height="516" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> </NOBR></tD> </tR> </TABLE></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>